Grey System Forecast of Cotton Yield and Calamity Year in Henan Province

doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-7091.1994.z1.027

Abstract

Abstract: By using the theory and method of the dynamic establishing model of greysystem,we established the forecast models of Henan province's cotton yield and calamityyear.The yield forecast model indicates that the cotton yield in Henan will reach 810 kg/haby 1995,and 960 kg/ha by the end of 2000.The calamity year model reveals that the first,second and third calamity year after 1988 will be 1992,1996 and 2006,respectively.Theforecast provides scientific basis for making.policies and adopting appropriate measures toguide Henan's Cotters production.

Key words: Cotton, Yield, Urey system forecast, Calamity year, Dynamic establishing model, Mathematical model

CLC Number:

S165.27

Wang Guifang, Zhang Yaozeng, Shang Hongquan. Grey System Forecast of Cotton Yield and Calamity Year in Henan Province[J]. ACTA AGRICULTURAE BOREALI-SINICA, doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-7091.1994.z1.027.

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http://www.hbnxb.net/EN/Y1994/V9/IS1/128

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