摘要： 研究了北京地区小麦和玉米生产与气象条件的关系，并根据未来气候变化的研究设计了气候情景，在此基础上讨论了未来气候变化对小麦玉米一年二熟种植制度的影响。结果表明，温度升高对小麦和玉米生产有利，玉米产量的提高大于小麦，降水减少首先对小麦生产不利，当降水进一步减少时，对玉米生产也不利。

关键词: 气候变化, 种植制度, 小麦, 玉米, 产量

Abstract: The relationship between the production of winter wheat and maize and the meteorological conditions in Beijing region was studied. The climatic situation was deviced based on the study of future climatic variation. The influence of future climatic variation on the double cropping system of winter wheat and maize in Beijing region was discussed. Results indicated that future temperature increase would be favorable to the production of both winter wheat and maize. The yield increase of maize would be more than that of winter wheat.The yield of winter wheat would decline with less precipitation. Further decrease of precipitation would be unfavorable to maize production.

Key words: Climatic variation, Cropping system, Winter wheat, Maize, Yield

中图分类号: 

• S512.104.7