摘要： 分别以玉米年雨量平均值±0.5倍标准差和平均值±1.5倍标准差界定不同等级的干旱年份,以气象产量减产≥3%界定玉米受灾年份,分析了河北省各市玉米旱年的平均减产率及其空间分布,研究了玉米不同旱灾强度的频率分布规律。提出了玉米干旱灾害风险指数的概念和计算方法,分析了河北省玉米干旱灾害风险指数的区域分布规律,并以旱年平均减产率、干旱灾害风险指数和年降水量等因子为指标,利用地理信息技术将全省玉米区划为干旱灾害高、中、低3种风险区,并探讨了各类风险区不同旱灾年景的平均减产率和防灾减灾措施。

关键词: 河北省, 玉米, 干旱, 风险区划

Abstract: Different levels of arid years being defined respectively by the 0. 5 t imes and 1. 5 times standard deviational of the annual precipitation mean values, and thenmaize arid disaster year being confirmed by whether the me??teorological equivalent yield reducion should be greater than three percent, this paper analyzed the maize average decreas??ing rate in drought years and its spatial distribut ion in various cities of Hebei Province, and studied the frequency distribu??tion raw of the maize drought hazard with different intensities. From point of view on risk analysis of disasters, this studypresented a methodology for risk assessment and division of maize drought hazard in Hebei Province, inculding the con??cept, calculation method, and regional distribution of the disaster risk index. The average decreasing rate, drought hazardrisk indexes and annual precipitat ion were selected as factors dominanting insurance of drought hazard, based on which,the maize growing zone would be divided into three grades, such as light, moderate and heavy under the support of GIS.The average decreasing rate, the disaster prevention and mitigation measures of drought year with different intensities and loses were also dicussed in different kind of risk areas.

Key words: Hebei Province, Maize, Drought, Risk division

中图分类号: 

• S165