摘要： 利用收集到的华北地区气象台站20多年的冬小麦底墒数据,以及相应年份7,8,9月间逐旬降水量的资料,对无灌溉情况下,冬小麦底墒与伏秋季降水的关系进行了分析,筛选出了简单易行的利用伏秋季各旬的降水量推定当年冬小麦底墒的方法,同时,统计检验和实际计算的结果表明:这种利用积分回归方法得到的积分回归方程能够反映出伏秋季逐旬降水量及其分布对该地区冬小麦底墒形成的影响.

关键词: 底墒, 冬小麦, 预测, 积分回归

Abstract: In this paper, based on the data of available soiLwater ( ASW)stored at planting in 0-50 cm soiLlayer for winter wheat and corresponding rainfalLper 10-days period during July to September at some meteoro-logicaLstations in North China, we analyzed the relationship between the ASW stored at planting for winter wheat and rainfalLunder non-irrigation.We worked out some integraLregression equations to forecast the ASW stored at planting for winter wheat.These equations are also applied to demonstrate the impacts of precipitation per 10-days period during July to September and its temporaLdistribution on forming ASW stored at planting for winter wheat in a region.

Key words: Available soil water ( ASW)stored at planting , Winter wheat , Forecast , Integral regression

中图分类号: 

• S11