摘要： 采用相关分析和逐步回归分析方法,建立了小麦白粉病的中短期(60～90天)预报模型,经15年次实际调查数据检验,拟合率达99%以上。采用协方差分析求得了不同病情指数与小麦产量损失关系的直线回归方程,据此方程求出不同产量水平下防治经济阈值,经大面积示范,验证其切实可行。
关键词:
小麦白粉病,
经济阈值,
预报模型
Abstract: The effect of wheat powdery mildew (Erysiphc graminis f.sp.tritici) on the yield of wheat was determined over 5 years in the field plots,linear relationship betty een the percentage of disease index and grain yield at growth stage of wheat, According to linear regression equation-0.2231+0,3219X) the economic threshold of wheat powdery mildew can be calculated, A multiple regression equation (Y=11.0308+16.06 0,1445Ji'Z,pathogen,where X2=sum=disease index of spring,X2=sum of rainfall analysis by from late March to April) was (1979-1988) of derived,winter from stepwise epidemic regression 10-years data occurence and of wheat powdery mildew. The results showed that the fitting-test probebilities were over 99% with X2-test.
Key words:
Wheat powdery mildew,
Economic threshold,
Forecastiug model
雷体文. 小麦白粉病经济阈值和预报模型的研究[J]. 华北农学报, 1992, 7(1): 100-106. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-7091.1992.01.017.
Lei Tiwen. Studies on the Economic Threshold and Forecasting Model for Occurenie of Wheat Powdery Mildew[J]. ACTA AGRICULTURAE BOREALI-SINICA, 1992, 7(1): 100-106. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-7091.1992.01.017.