摘要： 为了解河北省玉米产量变化的规律,明确今后育种工作的目标和前景,利用灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)模型,依据1980-2003年河北省审定的玉米品种的区域试验产量,建立预测模型为:^X((1k)+1)=324818.583945e0.018524-318652.083945。并在生产因素保持相对稳定的条件下,据此模型对河北省玉米生产进行规划性预测,为生产的规划与决策提供科学依据。预测结果表明,在挖掘耕地资源和非耕地资源的生产潜力,提高农业资源综合生产能力的情况下,河北省的玉米产量将在2030年有可能达到15052.6kg/hm2。

关键词: 灰色理论, 玉米产量, 分析与预测

Abstract: For knowing ordinary varied regular of corn yield of Hebei province and making clear aim and prospect ofbreeding in the future, The model of GM( 1, 1) of grey system through analysis regional experiment yield of corn variet ieswhich were approved by Hebei variety committee. A predictable model of the occurring of corncs develope: ^X ( 1)( k+ 1) =324 818. 583 945e0. 018524- 318 652. 083 945 was formulated, model to forecast the corn produce of Hebei province productionunder the conditions of relat ive stability of all its relevantelements and to provide scientific information for productionplanning and decision making.The forecast result indicated, Under the situating which excavates productive potentialof cultivable and non cultivable land resources and improves overall productivity of agricultural resources, HebeiProvincecs corn yields at 2030 year will possibility achieve 15 052. 6 kg/ hm^2.

Key words: Grey system, Corn yield, Analysis and forecast

中图分类号: 

• S513