摘要： 以洋河流域为研究区域,基于长期水文气象观测数据和数值分析方法,详细分析了洋河流域径流的年际、年内分配规律及典型丰、枯年份的变化,进而建立了降雨-径流关系模型,就气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响进行了定性和定量的分析。结果表明,洋河流域径流量存在减少趋势,尤其是80年代后下降趋势更明显;径流的减少除了受气候变化影响外,人类活动如工农业生产取水、人口增加导致的生活用水激增以及水库截流蓄水等水土保持措施是导致径流量减少的主要的原因,由于人类活动导致的径流减少量占径流减少总量的83.2%。

关键词: 洋河, 经流减少, 降雨, 气候变化, 人类活动

Abstract: Based on long??term hydrological and meteorological observat ion data, the runoff change was analyzed ondifferent time- scales monthly, annual and inter??decadal, and in representative dry and wet years in Yang River Basinwith numerical analysis method. And also, Regression analysis was used to establish the correlation between runoff andprecipitation at different t ime- scales. More importantly, however, precipitation??runoff mode was adopted to quantify theimpact of human activity and climate change on runoff, and the respective impact of human activity and climate change onrun off isolated. Results showed that runoff was experiencing a great decrease especially after the 1980s, besides the impactof climate change, human activit ies such as industrial and agriculture water use, the increase of domest ic water taken for rapid population growth, soil and water conservation measures as reservoir water storage were the main reasons of runoff decrease. And on average, 83. 2% of total runoff decrease was driven by human activit ies.

Key words: Yang River Basin, Runoff decrease, Precipitation, Climate change, Human activities

中图分类号: 

• S16