摘要： 本文使用太平洋286点海水温度资料,对我国粮食总产及其地理分布进行多时效的动态监测.为了能一次预报出整个的产量场,首先对初始场作自然正交展开,提取前P个主成分进行海温网格点的复相关计算,用以筛选因子组建预报方程.预报模式采用时效可任意指定的动态链接式,它可以通过海温这个“窗口”,实现对全国粮食总产前景的连续监测.

关键词: 产量预报, 海温, 动态监测

Abstract: The multi-time effect dynamic monitoring of the total grain yield and its geographical distribution in China was made by use of the sea temper-ature data in the Pacific (286 grid points) in this paper.In order to pred-ict once the whole yield field, the expansion of empirical orthogonal funct-ion was made for initial temperature field，the first several principle compon-ents were drawn to make multiple correlation calculation of sea temper-ature grid point，in order to select predicting factors and construct predicting equation, The prediction model was adopted as dynamical chain in which the time effect could be appointed randomly.It can be used to monitor con-tinuously the total grain yield in China with the sea temperature data.

Key words: Yield prediction, Sea temperature, Dynamic monitor