摘要： 以3年滑动平均数为基础,对1995-2006年河北省山前平原耕地面积、灌溉条件、粮食作物占农作物总播种面积比例的变化趋势和1996-2007年河北省粮食作物审定品种区试产量的变化趋势进行了分析,进而对该区域2009、2015和2020年粮食生产能力进行了估算。结果表明,未来该区域粮食生产能力呈上升趋势。此结果是建立在依靠科技进步、持续提高单产和严格保护耕地、推广节水技术基础上的,如果背离这些原则,粮食生产能力则有可能出现下降的情况。

关键词: 河北省山前平原, 粮食生产能力, 估算

Abstract: Based on the 3- year??s mean value, this paper analyzed the changing trend of arable areas of Hebei piedmont,their irrigation conditions as well as the percentage of grain crops on total crops planted ranging from 1995 to 2006.This paper also estimated the grain production capacity in 2009, 2015 and 2020 after the analysis of the grains crops?? productioncapacity changes in the approved test regions from 1996 to 2007. The results show the grain product ion capacitywill be increasing with the implementation of advanced science and technology, improved productivity, the spread of water- saving technology and the protection of arable areas. Otherwise, it will go down.

Key words: Hebeipiedmont, Grainproductioncapacity, Estimate

中图分类号: 

• F3??